Analysis

The Homegrown American League East

Today, I came across a great post on Baseball America written by Kyle Glaser. I wanted to see what I could project the team’s records to be using the rosters he provided.

Using his research (and sheepishly riding the coattails), I recorded my projected 2018 WAR (averaging out STEAMER and Depth Charts forecasts via Fangraphs) for each player listed in the article.

The average team with replacement-level players has been averaged to win about 52 games a year; a winning percentage of precisely .321 (52/160). Glaser gives us 16 players on his list; Major League Baseball teams go from a 25-man roster to a 40-man roster as the season comes to a close. We’re going to scale the 16 players to the 25, since 40-man rosters are only available for a month.

So, 16 of 25 is 64% of a regular MLB roster. Then I’ll take 64% of the 162 games (or 104 games) as our scale to total WAR. Not an exact science, but oh well.

I’ll further explain the equation when we get to the first AL East team.

Again giving credit where credit is due, Glaser put together these rosters based upon the following criteria:

“….what every team’s 2018 lineup and starting rotation would look like if it was made up solely of players drafted or signed by that team. In other words, a look at the team if it was made up entirely of homegrown players.”

“….foreign professionals signed from Japan, Cuba, South Korea or other countries are included, in addition to those drafted and signed, signed as international amateurs or signed as undrafted free agents. Players must have been active in 2017 and are scheduled to be active in 2018 to be eligible.”

We’ll start with the Baltimore Orioles.

bOrioles18

OK, so this roster produces a 22.4 WAR. Since the replacement team would win 33.4 of the 104 games (.321 winning percentage*104 ), and combining that with Baltimore’s 22.4 WAR, we have a total of 56 wins (precisely 55.8) in 104 games. That winning percentage is 54%, so scaling back to 162 games, with this roster, the Orioles would have a projected record of 87-75.

Got it? Good, lets move on.

bSox18

Using the above WAR-to-record formula, the Red Sox would post a 102-60 record with this team.

nny18

This Yankees squad? A 100-62 record.

rays18

The Tampa Bay Rays would end up at 90-72

tBJ18

And the Blue Jays? Last place at 79-83.

So, the AL East would shape up as so:
Boston 102-60
Yankees 100-62
Tampa Bay 90-72
Baltimore 87-75
Toronto 79-83

And oddly enough, it’s not a stretch to say this is pretty close to how the division is going to end up looking at the end of the 2018 season.

Check back through the week for more homegrown division projections and be sure to thank Mr. Glaser doing all the hard work for me.

Categories: Analysis, MLB

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